So I'm stressed, as you might imagine. But as I've been re-reading my sample, I've found a few paragraphs I've quite liked, and I thought I'd share this one with you, especially since I may end up cutting it for length. To give you the setup, my essay is about how the philosophical analysis of self-deception can productively be applied to societies, and how that can reflexively help the analysis for individuals. Anyway, here it is:
As a side note, looking at society allows us to see a neat distinction between self-deception and wishful thinking. When three books in rapid succession were published with the titles Dow 36,000, Dow 40,000, and Dow 100,000 in 1999 by three different authors, these were examples of wishful thinking: they were possible, but rosy, hopes whose strength of desirability had caused them to be taken for predictions or perhaps even certainties. To contrast with the self-deception of endless economic growth, it is helpful to look at Time magazine’s comment on the three books’ publication: “Given that stocks have returned 17% a year over the past 20 years, it's hard even to call them bulls. About all they're saying is that the U.S. will remain a sovereign nation. I'd call that a real sturdy limb they've climbed onto. By now, just about everyone knows that stocks go up 10% annually, on average, give or take, over long periods, even though they often fall sharply over short periods.” (Kadlec, time.com) The wishful thinking of the specific predictions, that the Dow will hit such heights in the next few years, are discounted by the author as insufficiently warranted by the evidence -- after all, a sharp crash would push their predictions too far into the future -- but he takes the societal self-deception that the economy will continue to progress as given; the Dow has only local peaks, but an overall curve toward infinity.
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